@InProceedings{ValverdeMare:2011:RaExEv,
               author = "Valverde, Maria Cle{\'o}fe and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Rainfall extremes events climatology over the Amazon basin",
                 year = "2011",
         organization = "Proceedings of the Global Conference on Global Warming 2011.",
             keywords = "Amazon basin, climatic extremes, heavy rainfall and regional 
                         model.",
             abstract = "The purpose of this study is to elaborate the climatology of 
                         extremes indices of rainfall in the Amazon basin. For this 
                         purpose, climatic indices (CDD, R95p, RX1day, Rnnmm) recommended 
                         by the joint World Meteorological Organization CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM 
                         Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were 
                         calculated. One of the most important aspects of this study is to 
                         characterize possible change in extreme of rainfall (e.g. floods, 
                         drought, etc) over Amazon basin, since these events have strongest 
                         impacts on society. Extremes indices were derived from daily 
                         precipitation at NOAALs Climate Prediction Center (CPCp) with 
                         resolution 1x1, for period 1979-2005. The indices calculated in 
                         this study are R50mm and R80mm defined as the number of days per 
                         year with precipitation amount . 50 mm and . 80mm respectively. 
                         CDD defined as annual maximum number of consecutive dry days and 
                         R95p (very wet days exceeding the 95th percentile).These indices 
                         can be related to drought (CDD) and floods (R95p) events. The 
                         rainfall of Amazon basin exhibits high interannual and 
                         interdecadal variability associated with ENSO events and with the 
                         positive anomaly of SST in the North Atlantic. The annual 
                         variability of extreme precipitation indices, such as, maximum 
                         length of dry spells (CDD) and RR> 95p (R95p) were sensitive to 
                         identification periods of droughts. Also, it verified that extreme 
                         rains . 50mm and . 80 mm (R50mm and R80mm), occur with or without 
                         events El Nino. On the other hand, droughts are not necessarily 
                         associated with a diminution of extreme rainfall events (R50mm e 
                         R80mm). Individual locations in the west of the basin (Santarem, 
                         Cachimbo and Manaus stations) show negative trends of CDD. 
                         However, Rio Branco station (southeast of basin) showed 
                         statistically significant positive trends of CDD, and captured the 
                         drought of 2005 and 2010. The future scenarios of ETA_HadCM3 model 
                         for the period 2011-2040, show an increase (decrease) of the index 
                         CDD (R95p) for the average area of the Amazon basin, and it will 
                         be stronger in the 2071-2099 climatology. However, as this result 
                         is a projection of model there are still many uncertainties. The 
                         fact is that historically these extremes of rain are part of 
                         climate variability in the region, and they can happen again.",
  conference-location = "Lisbon, Portugal",
      conference-year = "11-14, July",
           targetfile = "MariaValverde_Rainfall.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}